Growers, delegates and visitors to Four Oaks generally agreed 2024 will beat or equal 2023 for sales, with the economy settling and better weather in the early season expected.
The prevailing attitude was positivity, but again the industry would be weather-dependent.
GROWER
Seiont's Neil Alcock said there is more certainty in the young plant market for 2024 than in 2023 and people are forward ordering with more confidence. Shrubs are very strong at the moment compared to perennials and propagating his own material is helping that. On peat-free, Seiont has doing it for 13 years in potting and is 97% peat-free overall, having passed the trial phase nursery-wide. Shipping to Northern Ireland is ok, if done on pallets rather than trolleys, which hauliers won't take. Sales to the Republic of Ireland remain an issue, though mainland EU sales are up.
Gardeners Kitchen's Amanda Boers said she hopes 2024 is as good as 2023, which was a successful season for young veg that extended by four weeks at the end and began well even during poor early spring weather.
Syngenta's Neil Fishlock said 2024 will be slightly better than 2023 because of an ongoing positivity around plants which have performed well in a year when sales of big ticket items such as furniture have been challenging.
Happy Plants' Nat Porter said 2023 was as good a year for bedding as could be hoped for so 2024 may not be as good. She said summer bedding sold through quickly and plants such as dahlias sold out. Autumn started early too. Viola outsold pansies 60-40 rather than the other way round, possibly because they coloured up quicker and also because of their popularity as edible flowers. Everything since week 24 has been spot on and has beaten weaker comparisons from 2022. On the YPHA, membership is now 660 with an average of one a day joining in the last year. A 100-person trip to Haws and David Austin in September is sold out.
Allensmore's Mark Taylor said he was optimistic for 2024 with more stock to meet demand helping, while Lovania's Lee Chambers, who said 2023 was steady to good and better than 2022, though with a slow down in July.
Raymond Evison Clematis' Andy Jeanes said sales to North America were particularly strong. New varieties are 'Guernsey Flute' and 'Lindsay'.
John Richards said 2023 had been good after a slow start but for 2024 non-one knows. His in-house peat-free trials have shown his own mixes can be successful on nearly all plants, including ericas, though hybrid clematis is one still to eb solved. He uses 20% loam from his own site, plus bark, wood fibre and coir. Further testing is on areas such as water retention (tested by soaking peat and peat-free grown plants and then allow to wilt).
RETAIL NURSERY/GROWER & RETAILER
Grower-retailer Hartley's Nurseries, speaking on the peat issue, with a grower ban due at the end of 2026, said they are trialling peat-free but are in the dark on what is best practice.
Pentland's David Spray said 2024 was likely to be the same as 2023 after a good year this year. He said some bedding growers cut back too much after a poor post-Covid boom 2022 which meant those with stock did well. They may grow more for 2024. Plant sales have remained strong in the summer. He said with the retail side in mind, he has trialled eight or nine peat-frees and found only two produced reasonable plants, with one from Klassman the best though it needs double the watering and treble the fertiliser of peat. He said most garden centres were already 100% bagged peat-free but the concern is if they grow poor crops using it they will give up gardening.
GARDEN RETAIL
British Garden Centres' Charles Stubbs said 2024 returns were likely to be slightly up because of inflation but he doesn't think retailers will sell any more product. This is because of slower sales of big ticket item garden furniture after the pandemic boom. Prices are falling but that might not make a lot of difference to sales and the products take up a lot of floor space. Plants and gardening and restaurants all go from strength to strength.
Bosworth's Sam Bosworth said next year was likely to be similar with the market balancing out and sales back on track by the end of 2024 and a return to normal patterns in 2025. Plants have had a good strong year in 2023. The wider economy means building developments will not get underway immediately.
Hayloft's Derek Jarman said 2024 will be up on 2023 as consumers come out of "fear mode".
Visitor Brenda Smith of Manchester's Bud Garden Centre, which is moving soon to a different part of Burnage, said 2023's poor early spring was bound to be beaten in 2024.
GCA's Peter Burks said people have been optimistic and there was no reason not to expect a decent Christmas. Prices are falling for artificial trees, as well as garden furniture as container prices from China fall. However, this means selling more for the same money. He said a TV news programme has asked if garden centres were putting out Christmas early and said they were simply replacing seasonal areas with Christmas that had displayed garden furniture and BBQs, which has not sold well in 2023.
ROSES
Harkness Roses' Dave Andrews said 2024 was likely to be a positive year with better supply and partners including a new Dutch route to selling to Ireland a help. He said he was optimistic sales would start to rise as soon as this autumn.
David Austin Roses' Paul Manley said after a slow start sales went crazy. The grower is launching a new marketing portal.
Wharton's Roses' Jo Davey said 2023 was likely to be similar to 2023 with sales influenced heavily by the weather. Rose of the year 'Meteor' won best shrub at the Four Oaks awards.
CHRISTMAS
In the Christmas tree market, Infinity said summer rain meant trees were looking good. Prices have held at last year's levels and extra red tape meant possibly slightly less competition from abroad. A narrower tree for the smaller home remains the trend. Premium Christmas Trees said retailers were a mix of bullish and tentative so the market and prices are likely to be similar to 2022, though possibly pot-grown tree sales might fall if people cut back on buying a second tree.
SUPPLIER
Dan Durston of Durston's said 2024 was likely to be the same as 2023 as peat will still be saleable (the retail ban is at the end of 2024). He said a lot of people want to do what is considered the right thing and buy peat-free but the price differential put them off.
